Published: Thu, June 01, 2017
Worldwide | By Gretchen Simon

May's Conservatives dwarf rivals in election campaign donations

May's Conservatives dwarf rivals in election campaign donations

British prime minister Theresa May had a plan. Indeed, if the figures from this poll were to be produced on election day then we would see the Labour party gain their largest vote share in Wales at a general election since 2001.

YouGov's model draws on the data collected from around 50,000 panellists quizzed on their voting intention over the course of a week and uses a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is "safe Labour", says YouGov.

If YouGov's polling result materializes, Conservatives would win 310 seats, compared with 330, while Labors would gained +28 seats to 229.

May called a snap parliamentary election for June 8 - three years early - arguing that a bigger majority for her Conservatives, also known as Tories, would strengthen Britain's hand in Brexit negotiations with the EU. Five of the six see a majority of at least 40 seats in the 650-member House of Commons with one estimated range going as high 200. Anything less, however, has left strategists conflicted about whether this would lead to a rise or fall in the currency. Winning 306 seats, the Conservative Party eventually had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democratic Party with David Cameron and Nick Clegg being the Prime Minister and the Deputy Minister, respectively.

In recent days, the British pound has suffered a major selloff on the shrinking margin of Tories in the upcoming United Kingdom election that would be held on June 8th. That's a hefty plunge for a result that essentially preserves the status quo. Other polls in recent days predict May's majority is safe. Other recent polls such as ComRes and ICM have suggested Labour would gain some ground on the Conservatives, but the Tories would prevail and maintain a majority.

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Speaking to the Evening Standard about the poll commissioned by the newspaper, Professor Philip Cowley, director of Queen Mary University's Mile End Institute, said: "This wasn't part of the Conservative script for the election".

Dudley North, a Labour-held seat which the Tories could take, is a narrow Labour win, the model finds. But JPMorgan aren't so sure.

"Her resolve on Brexit is not in doubt; but her ability to deliver the best deal for Britain in terms of the closest possible relationship with the European Union is worryingly unclear", it said.

Analysts at Nomura expect something similar.

"But since the manifestos were launched, there's been a rapid tumbling in the gap between the Conservatives and Labour", he said, referring to the pre-election pledges of the main parties. Spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll from.@yougov.

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