Published: Tue, November 14, 2017
Money | By Armando Alvarado

India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

The Paris-based IEA revised demand growth down by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2017 and 2018, for an increase of around 1.5m bpd this year, to 97.7m bpd, and 1.3m next, to 98.9m bpd, which could push the market back into a surplus in the first half of next year.

Oil prices have risen in recent months, after both Opec and non-Opec countries struck a landmark deal at the end of past year to cut back production to combat a global oil glut.

The IEA also released the 2017 edition of its World Energy Outlook Tuesday morning.

"The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for global market dynamics", said Dr Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director. "This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices".

"It is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher", said Birol.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

#EndorseThis: John Oliver Delivers Scathing Review Of Trump Year One
Harding biopic, featuring Anna Kendrick and Laura Linney acting the hell out of their wax co-star. "Will you help us, Mr. That super wonky and pricy move begat Oliver's movie trailer for his ideal Warren G.

Opec said in the latest edition of the World Oil Outlook forecasts that oil would supply just over 27 per cent of worldwide energy needs in 2040, while natural gas will see its share at slightly more than 25 per cent.

If planned pipeline projects come to fruition, the United States and Canada combined could export more than 700,000 bpd to China by 2040 - a drop in the barrel in the country's 15.5 million bpd demand.

However, even rapid growth in the electric vehicle fleet would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s, it said.

Two government initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, namely the carbon tax and the GHG emission limits, also "have implications for oil sands", the IEA warns.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent - would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it said.

Like this: